Looking Back At My 2015-16 Predictions

predictions

Before the 2015-16 season, I made predictions as to how I thought the campaign would pan out. It’s fair to say I didn’t do very well…

Key

  • Green = correct prediction
  • Orange = 3 places or less away (close, but no cigar)
  • Red = 4 places or more away (completely incorrect)

Premier League

BPL (start of season)

Like everyone else, I had no idea what Leicester City would do in 2015-16, and predicted them to finish down in 17th. Equally, no one saw Chelsea’s dramatic slump coming and I thought the Blues would retain their title before they eventually finished 10th. Those two were arguably my worst two Premier League predictions, but I was also quite a way out on Watford (who I thought would finish bottom), whilst I thought Aston Villa and Newcastle would survive comfortably but the pair ended up getting relegated. On the positive side, I got Arsenal (2nd) and Manchester City (4th) spot on, and were ‘close’ with nine other teams.

Championship

Championship

It doesn’t make for much prettier reading in the second tier. I did get more correct than in the Premier League though, putting Middlesbrough (2nd), Ipswich (7th), Bristol City (18th) and MK Dons (23rd) in their final positions. I was furtherest out with Brighton, who I thought would end up in 17th, but mounted a surprise play-off push to finish in third. QPR, Wolves and my own team Reading (I’m forever the optimist) finished much below my expectations, whilst Preston hugely exceeded them. As well as the four correct predictions, I was ‘close’ with six other teams.

League One

League One

The only predictions I got spot on in League One were top (Wigan) and bottom (Crewe), which I suppose isn’t a bad pair to get right. I also got three of the four play-off sides correct, just not in the right positions (Barnsley, Bradford and Millwall), which were a few of my nine ‘close’ predictions. I was furthest out with Walsall, who ended up finishing third despite me thinking they’d be 17th, and Doncaster, who were relegated after I predicted them a 7th place finish. Burton also greatly surprised me as I thought they’d end up 15th – they were promoted to the Championship in second.

League Two

League Two

This can be classed as a complete and utter failure. I didn’t get a single prediction correct, was only ‘close’ on seven and none of my predicted top seven finished in that area. My worst prediction (and the worst in the entire four divisions) was placing Accrington Stanley in the relegation zone, but they finished fourth, missing out on promotion on goal difference. Notts County (predicted 5th/finished 17th) and Bristol Rovers (predicted 15th/finished 3rd) were also a long way out. My closest predictions were one off – Crawley finished 20th after I predicted 19th, and Dagenham & Redbridge finished 23rd after I predicted 24th. They went down either way!

So out of 92 positions across the four leagues,  I got eight right. That is awful and embarrassing.

Other Competitions

Other Predictions

Out of the five I got correct of these, La Liga (Barcelona), Bundesliga (Bayern Munich), Ligue 1 (PSG) and the Scottish Premier League (Celtic) were incredibly easy to predict, and I’m annoyed that I tried to subvert the norm and predict Roma for the Serie A title. The only one I’m actually proud of is guessing that Manchester United would win the FA Cup.

Of those I got wrong, Sergio Aguero finished third in the Premier League golden boot, whilst neither the Argentine or Ross Barkley were nominated for the respective PFA awards I thought they would win. Liverpool actually reached the final of the Capital One Cup, but Sheffield United only reached the Northern Area quarter-finals of the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy. In Europe, Barcelona were surprisingly knocked out of the Champions League in the quarter-finals, and Borussia Dortmund reached the same stage in the Europa League. Roma ended up finishing third in Serie A.


Premier League Predictions Weekly Competition

Throughout the campaign, I also predicted the scores of the weekend’s Premier League games against a different challenger every time. Here’s how the final leaderboard looks…

Predictions league table

So congratulations to Jacob South Klein, who wins the competition – unfortunately there’s no prize, sorry Jacob! As for Thomas Fletcher and Kyle Goldsmith, I think it’s time you two brushed up on your football knowledge ;).

I finished with an average of 5.61, placing me slap bang in the middle of the leaderboard. My highest score was 11 points in Gameweek 12 which would have seen me top, but I also got a score of two on three occasions (Gameweeks 21, 22 and 26). In total, I scored 213 points, bettering my guests’ total of 194. I won 19 rounds, the guests won 15, and there were 4 draws. Thanks to everyone who took part, it wouldn’t have been able to happen without you!

I also created an alternative Premier League table, based on the results I predicted throughout the season. Here’s how it looked:

BPL (through result predictions)

Key

  • Green = correct prediction
  • Orange = 3 places or less away/10 points or less away (close, but no cigar)
  • Red = 4 places or more away/11 points or more away (completely incorrect)

Well it makes for much better reading, as according to my predicted results, five teams (Tottenham, Everton, Swansea, Bournemouth and Aston Villa) finished where the finished in reality. I was ‘close’ on 14 of the other 15 teams, the only anomaly again being Leicester City – I always thought their incredible run would end and started rating their chances far too late in the campaign!

As for points, I was quite far off on most of them, especially considering in reality, no one apart from Leicester finished above 71 points. My results put Arsenal on 99 points, a tally that would have broken the Premier League record, so that was definitely the most far fetched – along with Manchester City, they had the biggest points difference (28). I actually didn’t predict a City defeat the entire campaign, whilst conversely I didn’t predict a Sunderland or Aston Villa win the entire campaign. The closest points tally I got was Everton – who ended up with 48 points due to my predictions and 47 in reality!


The fact that most of my predictions were widely inaccurate shows what a crazy game football is. It never fails to surprise us, which is why we love it! I’ll make my predictions for 2016-17 again in August, whilst in the coming days, I’ll guess how far each country will get at Euro 2016.

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